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Amish & Old Order Mennos in the 2004 Presidential Election (Donald B. Kraybill, Elizabethtown College; Kyle C. Kopko, The Ohio State University; April 2007 Mennonite Quarterly Review)

What are we going to see on Election Day? A good turnout, but nothing will compare to the 2004 Presidential Election in which some declared The Amish are caught up with Bush fever while others reminded us God never lost an election.

Don't forget that real people are involved in all of the statistics. Why were PA and OH hot spots in the election? In the 2000 Election, Florida was decided by 537 votes for Bush (several other states were just as or even closer), September 11 Attacks, War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq, social issues (e.g., amendment on same-sex marriage and abortion/stem cell research).

GOP Strategy: 1. Focus on the GOP base, 2. The search for new voters: Evangelical Christians, pro-gun, pro-life, pro-tax cuts (e.g., business owners, wealthier supporters) particularly in the swing states which are usually won by a few percentage points (e.g., Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin).

Ohio: Bush won by 3.5% (165,019 votes) in 2000. 20 electoral votes in 2004. Republican elected officials: Governor Bob Taft, US Senators DeWine & Voinovich, 12/18 Members in U.S. House Reps, Majority of OH General Assembly, Issue #1: Ban same-sex marriage amendment. Urban areas where more people grouped together tend to vote Democratic.

PA: Bush lost by 4.2% (204,840) in 2000. 21 electoral votes in 2004. Republican elected officials: U.S. Senators Specter & Santorum, 12/19 members in US House, Majority of PA General Assembly. Since 1955, the governorship shifted between parties every 8 years. 1972-2000, favored the candidate who won national popular vote. James Carville on PA, It's Philly on one end, Pittsburgh on the other; Alabama in the middle. More urbanized areas tend to be more Democratic. T-section of PA voters are strongly Republican. Bush made 44 visits to PA between 2001-4 with 11 visits to Lancaster County or adjacent counties in which there was often a rock concert atmosphere.

Why focus on Amish & Mennonites? Large Amish and Mennonite population in PA and OH which appeared to be untapped Bush/Cheney supporters because they share Bush's values. About 40,000 voting-age Amish in PA and OH could influence the election outcome.

5 Questions: Did the PA GOP register many Amish and Old Order Mennonites? Did registered people turn out to vote? Did Lancaster County Amish and Old Order Mennonites vote at similar levels? Were Old Orders in other states energized to vote? Was Old Order voting in the 2004 an anomaly or a new trend?

Two Kingdoms theology of the Amish involves 1. a separation of Church and state (i.e., the Amish do not receive from the government), 2. My Kingdom not of this world, 3. yet honor and obey government which operates by force (i.e., medieval subjects to the king/president), 4. Pray and pay taxes. Note: Wisconsin vs. Yoder, a Supreme Court Case allowing the Amish to restrict education to the 8th grade was a rare example of involvement with the state, yet even in this instance their deference embodied most of their values.

Old Order Views: 1. Voting is the choice of the individual (Of the 5% or less which vote, they never voted for the Commander-in-Chief as he carries the threat of force). 2. Holding political office is taboo and a test of membership as the state depends on the threat of force and may demand the use of it. 3. Political campaigning is discouraged, 4. Old Order Mennonite ministers are not allowed to sign petitions.

Old Order Steering Committee: Pray they will be done (1982-90); Voting differs in different areas (1991); Pray, but leave it to home bishops (1994); We do not encourage voting (October 2004).

The Bush Campaign Activities in Lancaster County: Lapp's Electrical (July 9, 40-50 invited in by the secret service, touched by the gesture, accepted a straw hat as a gift and wore it, spread like wildfire through the Amish community), King of Prussia (September 22, laid hands on the shoulders of an Amish man and asked for prayers by the community), Hershey Park Stadium (October 21, entered via Marine 1), Lancaster Airport (October 27, entered via Air Force One).

Republican Connections: Chet Beiler (family left Amish when he was 3, speaks PA German fluently, employs Amish as part of a gazebo business, chair of Lancaster Republican Party), Amish liaisons (relatives of Chet), Amish newspapers (liaisons wrote about Bush's faith, humanitarian efforts in Iraq), Representative Joe Pitts (Child Labor Law loosening, vocally against Amish in the City, warm friendship with leaders of Lancaster Amish community, payback time).

Aggressive Registration: 1 day a week door-to-door over the summer with Amish liaisons, republican volunteers (e.g., veterinarian and his wife whose practice was almost all Amish; transportation for Amish to the polls), public events (stands at fairs), Swept up with Bush Fever

Why Vote for Bush? The President's religious convictions, down to earth style (guy just like us with a farm in TX), moral vision for society (against sinful things such as abortion, gay marriage), pray and vote (You can be on your knees all day. But the cows won't get milked).

Why not vote? A war president. If we vote, then will we need to fight? Strangers and Pilgrims do not vote. We vote on our knees and God decides the outcome. God never lost an election, i.e., put this in God's hands.

Eligible Voters: Amish (2004): 155 Church Districts, 136 Lancaster County, 10,350 Eligible in Lancaster County; Older Mennos 2,800 Horning (black bumper Mennonites), 2,800 Wenger (horse and buggy Mennonites).

% Registration by Party (Republican/Amish 92.6, Old Order Mennos 93, Lancaster County population in general 60; Democrat Amish .3, Old Order Mennos .6, Lancaster County population in general 25.7; Other Amish 7, Old Order Mennos 6.4, Lancaster County population in general 14.3).

% Registration by Gender (Women: Amish 28, Old Order Mennos 15, Lancaster County population in general 51; Men: Amish 72, Old Order Mennos 85, Lancaster County population in general 47); Registration 2000, 2004 (N) 2000 (Amish 598, Old Order Mennos 362, Lancaster County population in general 214, 574; 2004 Amish 2,134, Old Order Mennos 539, Lancaster County population in general 287,327); Summer 2004 voter registration increase Amish 169%, Old Order Mennonites 25%, Lancaster County population in general 14%.

Some Back Lash: Did we peak too early (Yes)? Church leaders resist especially as national media picked up their swing capabilities. Political events nixed to prevent more back lash. Letter circulating why they shouldn't vote and led to second thoughts.

Registrants Who voted (2000: Amish 320, Old Order Mennos 209 increased to 2004: Amish 1,342, Old Order Mennos 332). % Voter turnout 2004 (Amish 63, Old Order Mennos 62, Lancaster County population in general 77; % of eligible adults who voted Amish 13, Old Order Mennos 6, Lancaster County population in general 61). Fewer voted in the more conservative southern part of Lancaster County).

1992 spike for voting in Holmes County, OH, to address legislation which would require every product, even those sold at roadside stands, to list ingredients.

Voting beyond Lancaster County: Dover, DE (0-6 people), Arthur, IL (0-5%), Hillsdale, MI (none), Northern IN (6 people). What we saw in Holmes Co, OH, and Lancaster Co, PA, was different? Why Bush fever in these locations? Chet Beiler connection. PA swing state. Bush down home rancher style. Bush religious views. Moral issues in campaign. Greater Amish/English interaction (e.g., Joe Pitts helping Amish maintain lifestyle).

Will Bush fever endure? In Lancaster, most probably higher voting in the future, but 2004 was unusual in many ways. Ancedotally, the only other large turnout for a Presidental election was 1960 Nixon vs. Kennedy. Kraybill's conservative Mennonite dad apologized to him for voting. He was concerned that the Pope was going to take over the world. Maybe we went overboard (comment by an Amish liaison with regard to 2004).

Should we just sit by when bad things happen (are we hearing citizenship on the lips of an Old Order Amish)? Bad things (Abortion, gay marriage) are not issues in the Amish community. This may speak of a moral vision for the larger society. The tension between religious separatism and civic responsibility makes the story interesting; For more on the general topic, see Don Kraybill's The Amish and the State.